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A ruinous seism in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest could lower the ground near the glide by up to 6.6 feet ( 2 meters ) . Combined with arise seas make by clime change , that could make prospicient - term flooding problems for coastal area in northern California , Washington and Oregon , a young discipline finds .
Such a temblor would triple the amount of land in the 100 - class floodplain in the Pacific Northwest by 2100 , according to the field .
" We mouth a lot about the tsunami and about the shaking , but this subsidence could persist for decades to centuries,“Tina Dura , a coastal geologist at Virginia Tech who led the research , enjoin Live Science . " And that ’s locomote to be something that ’s going to wholly change these coastal community . "
Unlike other coastal domain , the Pacific Northwest has for the most part escaped the impacts of rising sea grade triggered by climate variety . That ’s because of the area ’s geology . The coastal Pacific Northwest is asubduction zonewhere oceanictectonic plates(in this case , the Juan de Fuca and Gorda plate ) sink under continental home ( in this slip , the North American Plate ) .
The last time this Cascadia subduction geographical zone shook off a major temblor was in 1700 . Since then , the coastline has been rise by 0.04 to 0.12 in ( 1 to 3 millimeters ) a year , slenderly outpacing clime - tug sea - level wage increase in many areas . Climate change is set to have its day , however , Dura allege : By 2030 , the sea level will be jump quicker than Cascadia ’s uplift .
Geologists have long have it away that a major Cascadia earthquake could cause the coastline to drop . It ’s come about in many major subduction - zone earthquakes before , including the 1960 magnitude9.5 Great Chilean Earthquake , the most potent temblor ever memorialize . The 2004 Indian Ocean seism and tsunami that kill more than 227,000 citizenry alsocaused the land to slump by as much as 6 feet(1.8 G ) in Sumatra , Indonesia . Geological grounds from the 1700 temblor in the Pacific Northwest demo wood becoming mudflats after slumping below ocean level .
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But no one had measure how this slumping , known as subsidence , would interact with originate sea levels drive by climate alteration . Dura and her team compared the amount of land that would terminate up in the Federal Emergency Management Agency ( FEMA ) 100 - year flood plain if a order of magnitude 8 Cascadia temblor were to chance today versus in 2100 , when mood - driven sea - level upgrade is expect to make between 1.3 and 2.9 foot ( 0.4 to 0.9 metre ) in Cascadia ’s estuaries .
They find that in the tough - cause scenarios of up to 6.6 feet of subsiding , the area in the 100 - year flood plain would increase by 145 square nautical mile ( 370 substantial kilometers ) , liken with 115 straight miles ( 300 square km ) if the quake were to strike today . The designation of a 100 - twelvemonth floodplain means that an arena has a 1 % probability of implosion therapy in a yield yr .
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The expansion of the floodplain would put an extra 17,710 residents in the track of flooding . Right now , 8,120 people call these floodplain home . The expanded floodplain also holds all important infrastructure , such as effluent intervention plants , electrical substation , and municipal airports . Many of these areas would be right away impacted by a tsunami from a major Cascadia quake , Dura said , but continued flooding in the aftermath could dissemble evacuation , saving and rebuilding .
" Could something like air response be interrupted ? " she say . These expanded flood plain maps could help emergency director and metropolis planners prepare for the worst , she added .
The results were published April 28 in the journalPNAS .
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